[SMM Analysis] Refined Nickel Production Increased Slightly in September, Spot Cargo Transactions Recovered Compared to August

In September 2025, SMM refined nickel production increased 1% MoM, up 13% YoY, with cumulative growth of 24% YoY. The domestic refined nickel enterprise operating rate was 66%. The operating rate remained stable in September, with enterprises producing normally according to their plans. New domestic refined nickel projects were delayed, and overall refined nickel production showed no significant fluctuations. Price-wise, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel in September was 122,623 yuan/mt, up 678 yuan/mt MoM, increasing slightly. In the spot market, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel in September was 2,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel ranged from -150-200 yuan/mt, lower than the previous month. Demand side, downstream demand in September fell short of expectations. Spot trading volume recovered slightly compared to August, with buyers only making essential stockpiling when nickel prices were at relatively low levels, showing limited purchasing enthusiasm.

Looking ahead, affected by tight intermediate product raw material supply and delays in new refined nickel projects, refined nickel production is unlikely to see a significant increase in the short term. October refined nickel production is expected to increase slightly by 2% MoM.